fanastyreaList Secret Sauce Rankings

Inspired by a reddit post from u/Friends_Books_Sports  I decided to create a value sheet for the top 140 players doing an insane amount of math. I will avoid going into the exact science of how list was created. It is not that I wish to keep it a secret, but there is NOOOO way that you would finish this article if I started with the methodology. You need to trust me, if you use this ranking system you will be able to get a butt-load of value in every round of your draft.

The basic idea is to find the disparity between a player’s ADP from ESPN vs other fantasy sites. If some players are being taken a lot later in ESPN against their universal ADP, then you can get them at a discount. Because this is not a for-profit website (yet), I can totally cite Matthew Berry here, who has a nice bit about ADP in his latest article [emphasis mine].

“Average draft position varies greatly — and I mean greatly — from site to site.”… “So while Joseph Randle’s average pick is currently 55th on ESPN, his ADP on one of our competitors is pick 73. On another of our competitors, he is pick 46, and, on a well-respected mock draft site, he is going at pick 31. He’s all over the place, so it’s important you know what the ADP is wherever you play. In fact, a quick, helpful exercise is to go through that site’s ADP with whatever rankings you plan to bring to the draft and see what players you ‘love’ or ‘hate.’”

–          Matthew Berry, espn.go.com http://goo.gl/0XWjWZ

Instead of providing you with a personal list of love and hate, I decided to let math do the deciding for me. In a giant caldron [read: excel], I mixed together the ADP from ESPN and Fantasy Football Calculator (the well-respected mock draft site, from earlier), and added a pinch of HarrisFootball.com rankings to tamper down value of the Homer picks. Set the temperature to boil [more math], and came up with the Current Value (CV) of every player at their current ESPN ADP (which I will now refer to as EADP, for simplicity).

Because going through numbers can suck, I also have included the best round, in both 10 & 12 team leagues, to take each player to get the best bang for your buck without having to reach for each player. Again, this only works if you are drafting on ESPN.

Later this week I will provide a complete list of the 140 players, but here is just a taste… (Updated last on 8/20/2015)

 

Average Draft Postion Best Round to Draft
Player Pos ESPN Secret Sauce CV 10 Team 12 Team
Antonio Brown, Pit WR 8 7 + 1 1 1
Julio Jones, Atl WR 19 13 + 7 2 2
Andre Johnson, Ind WR 57 49 + 8 5 or 6 5
Martavis Bryant, Pit WR 83 57 + 26 7 6
Eric Decker, NYJ WR 90 118 – 27 12 10

 

Let’s take Andre Johnson as an example to explain this further. Andre is going in most ESPN drafts at an ADP of 57, but he is going 43 overall on FFC, a round and a half earlier! My magical Secret-Sauce rankings, says the best place to pick him up is around pick 49 (near the end of the 5th round in 10 Team leagues). Of course, you could instead pick him up around pick 40, like they do on FFC, but then you won’t get the free value. Basically, the ADP allows you to pick the player up on the cheap without having to reach crazy high to get him. When you reach too far you can miss out on the value from waiting and picking him up before your buddies realize a stud is still on the board. You will be getting a 4th round value at a 5th round cost, because he often fall into the 6th.

Soon I will be releasing the full Secret Sauce list for your enjoyment (dissection) and a wonderful cheat sheet that I can almost guarantee you will win your draft (I said draft, not your league). But I wanted to start you off with the fun stuff. These are the top values to be found in the ESPN drafts. I have put this into practice and it totally works. I repeat… THIS SHIT WORKS. I have drank the Kool-Aid and it tastes so good.

 

The best values to be found in ESPN’s Draft Board, as decided by MATH.

SSR – Secret Sauce Rankings (the best Draft Postion to pick these players up)

EADP – the Average Draft Position when drafted on ESPN.com

 

John Brown, Ari

Value: +34

EADP: 123

SSR: 90

Should be drafted…

10 team: 10th or 11th round

12 team: 9th round

John Brown is the MVP of draft value with CDP of 90 despite being drafted 123 EADP. This is insane. Basically, a 9thround kind of guy in the has been falling to the middle of the 13th round. Picking him up anywhere before that is an absolute miracle. Pick up this TY Hilton Clone for free in the 10th round if you like him a lot, pick him up in the 11th if think he will sneak past your competitors.

Michael Floyd has destroyed his hand. Palmer is back. You got nothing to lose using on a 10 rounder with a truck load of upside. Believe the hype when it comes cheap.

Doug Martin, TB

Value: +32

EADP: 92

SSR: 60

Should be drafted…

10 team: 8th round

12 team: 7th round

Maybe you are saying to yourself, “Never AGAIN”. I totally get that- he’s a trash bag, but you need to understand that ever player has some value at some point in the draft. He may only be a ghost of his former self but getting a 26 year-old RB1 in the 8th round doesn’t come along very often. The smart drafters at FFC are picking him up in the middle of the 6th round, so don’t sleep on this potential. I am buying in on this trash bag.

Martavis Bryant, Pit

Value: +26

EADP: 82

SSR: 64

Should be drafted…

10 team: 7th round

12 team: 6th Round

At 6-foot-4 and with wheels, this one makes absolutely no sense. With Wheaton officially in the slot, you have Megatron-Lite at a Mike Wallace price. I am taking Bryant in every draft I do in the 7th round. EVERY TIME. If you wait any longer, I promise that someone will notice that he is still on the board and swear it was a computer glitch.

Charles Johnson, Min

Value: +25

EADP: 108

SSR: 83

Should be drafted…

10 team: late 9th/early 10th round

12 team: 8th round

Many predicted that he just would not stay around, but this preseason shows us that the Vikings think they have a star on their hands. I am not going to say that Charles is going to be a slam-dunk, but when you have chemistry with an emerging QB, this late round lotto is an easy choice.

Ameer Abdullah, Det

Value: + 25

EADP: 79

SSR: 63

Should be drafted…

10 team: 6th round

12 team: 6th round

The Hype train is getting crowded. Look, you have a problem: Everyone wants Abdullah. I don’t have a solution for that, however I do have the answer. Don’t pick him up in the 5th – that is way too high for a rookie in a committee.  However, don’t you dare let him fall into the 7th – the moment A Abdullah shows up, crawling up that list on the button of your phone, he will be gone.

Repeat after me… I will pick up Ameer Abdullah in the 6th ROUND.

David Cobb, Ten

Value: +23

EADP: 135

SSR: 122

Should be drafted…

10 team:  12th or 13th round

12 team:  11th round

What would you say the chances are that Bishop Sankey ends this year as Tennessee’s main back? No really, be optimistic… 60%? 50-50?

It doesn’t matter what your answer is, Cobb is cheap. Very cheap. Too cheap to pass up.

Latavius Murray, Oak

Value: +17

EADP: 54

SSR: 36

Should be drafted…

10 team: late 4th/early 5th round

12 team: 4th round

I need to give you someone in the early rounds, right? Well I got your man. There is not many quality RBs that have a 2 round gap in there ADP. That kind of disparity may make you think of Joseph Randall, but Latavius is a lot like Randall, but without all the uncertainty. I know that is weird to hear, but you just need to accept it. If find yourself in the 5th, with a hole in your RB core, you may want to look to see if Murray is still around. Its basically free money.

Bonus Values

Sam Bradford, Phi QB

+ 15 Value, Round 13 (10 Team), Round 11 (12 Team)

Ryan Tannehill, Mia QB

+ 15 Value, Round 10 (10 Team), Round 9 (12 Team)

There is only two QBs with significant values at their ESPN ADPs. But you know what I see when I look at these two guys? Mr. Ceiling & Mr. Floor. Maybe the two would make one hell of a one-two punch when you go Streaming QBs this year.

Arian Foster*, Hou

+24 Value, Round 9 (10 Team), Round 8 (12 Team)

Have you been asking yourself, “if Foster is going to play at some point this season, where should I feel comfortable grabbing him without wasting too much value, mathematically speaking?” I am sure you do not ask yourself such specific questions, but regardless the Secret Sauce says early in the 9th. He is pure profit the moment he starts playing, whenever that may be.

Owen Daniels, Den

+26 Value, Round 11 (10 Team), Round 9 or 10 (12 Team)

Only one TE makes the cut in terms of great value. And no surprise, he could (probably) become Manning’s new favorite target. Every year, Peyton makes a fool out of all us, but not you, cause you are a pro.

Thanks for reading, and remember that all of these players will be hurt by week 4.

fanastyreaList Secret Sauce Full Rankings

 

fantasyreaList Writer: P. Christian Swafford

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