I made this post because we’ve seen how not only the NFL, but fantasy football has become more and more about the passing game. Here I present the argument that it is more important to draft a couple of first-string wide receivers above top running backs. Why? Because there is a better chance that you could snag a backup RB on the Waiver Wire or mid-tier player on the mid round and still got a nice production, than for you to find a replacement for a top-tier WR or even a very productive one.
In these tables you’ll see the reason why I would go for WR early as my Draft strategy. The differential is just to show how good or bad the backups were in both running backs and wide receivers. You will see the amount of players whom were able to produce on a consistent basis as backups and were not. Hope you like it!
Tell me what you think and enjoy!
Tables
These were players (fantasy relevant) that lost at least two games due injury and/or suspension.
All data is according to NFL.com Standard Scoring Leagues.
Data from week 1 through week 16. (No data of week 17)
ADP rounds on 10-team-league
RB
| Player | ADP | Round | Weeks lost | Points/game | Substituted by | Sub points/game | Dif |
| Chris Johnson (ARI) | 149.33 | Late 15th | 13-16 | 9.2 | David Johnson (top10) | 22.47 | +13.27 |
| Matt Forte (CHI) | 7.88 | Late 1st | 9-11 | 13.35 | Jeremy Langford | 20.86 | +7.75 |
| Marshawn Lynch (SEA) | 5.8 | Mid 1st | 4,5 & 11-16 | 9.95 | Thomas Rawls (4,5 & 11-14 | 16.65 | +6.7 |
| Mark Ingram (NO) | 26.56 | Mid 3rd | 14 -16 | 12.78 | Tim Hightower | 17.63 | +4.85 |
| Le’Veon Bell (PIT) | 2.18 | Early 1st | 1,2 & 9-16 | 14.53 | DeAngelo Williams (top5) | 18.5 | +3.97 |
| LeSean McCoy (BUF) | 14.89 | Mid 2nd | 4,5 & 16 | 12.22 | Karlos Williams (4 & 16) | 13.35 | +1.13 |
| Dion Lewis (NE) | 148.06 | Late 15th | 10-16 | 10.52 | James White | 9.87 | -0.62 |
| Jamaal Charles (KC) | 4.93 | Mid 1st | 6-16 | 16.02 | Charcandrick West (6-11) | 14.7 | -1.32 |
| Carlos Hyde (SF) | 40.23 | Early 5th | 8-16 | 10.04 | Shaun Draughn (9- 15) | 8.3 | -1.74 |
| Arian Foster (HOU) | 89.67 | Late 9th | 1-3 & 8-16 | 13.75 | Alfred Blue | 7.47 | -6.28 |
Total Differential: +27.71
WR
On the points per game I’m putting the average from the multiple backup players.
| Player | ADP | Round | Weeks lost | Points/Game | Substituted by | Sub points/game | Dif |
| Dez Bryant (DAL) | 20.7 | Early 3rd | 2 -7 &16 | 6.45 | Terrance Williams (2, 4-7 & 16) | 6.91 | +0.46 |
| Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) | ND | ND | Whole 2015 | 2014: 10.12 | Ted Ginn | 9.32 | -0.8 |
| DeSean Jackson (WSH) | 49.01 | Late 5th | 1-7 | 9.35 | Pierre Garcon | 7.57 | -1.78 |
| Steve Smith (BAL) | 95.58 | Mid 10th | 5, 10-16 | 12.14 | Kamar Aiken | 9.91 | -2.23 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 31.17 | Early 4th | 1,2 | 10.5 | Vincent Jackson | 8.25 | -2.25 |
| Alshon Jeffery (CHI) | 25.15 | Mid 3rd | 2-5, 11 & 16 | 11.63 | Josh Bellamy (W2), Eddie Royal (W3,4), Marquess Wilson (W5, 11), Marc Mariani (W16) | 8.22 | -3.41 |
| Keenan Allen (SD) | 70.19 | Early 8th | 9 -16 | 11.81 | Dontrelle Inman (except W14) | 6.98 | -4.83 |
| Sammy Watkins (BUF) | 56.9 | Mid 6th | 1,4,5 & 7 | 14.43 | Percy Harvin (W1), Chris Hogan (W4,5) & Robert Woods (W7) | 9.25 | -5.18 |
| Jordy Nelson (GB) | ND | ND | Whole 2015 | 2014: 14.75 | Randall Cobb & James Jones | 9.26 | -5.49 |
| Julian Edelman (NE) | 44 | Mid 5th | 11-16 | 12.38 | Danny Amendola (W11, 13,14,15) Brandon LaFell (W12), Keshawn Martin (W16) | 6.02 | -6.36 |
Total Differential: -31.87
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