Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
Last year’s top RB could be in for a rough year. Between scheduling, backfield competition, and the yearly grind, Devonta could be a recipe for disaster. I know you’re probably thinking, how could last years most dominant RB be on a Bust Alert list? Well, let me make my case.
First off, his schedule is brutal, at one point playing the Seahawks, Broncos, and Panthers all in a row. Not to mention week 16, championship week for many, he goes up against the Panthers again. Usually I wouldn’t even consider scheduling when picking my 1st pick, but with Freeman, it’s so dangerous that it has to be at least noteworthy. This, combined with the threat of Tevin Coleman, Is scary.
That Brings us to the backfield competition in Atlanta, and there definitely is one. Last year, remember, Coleman actually beat out Freeman for the starting job. Freeman then won the job back after Coleman had a rough start due to Injury. Coleman was running well before his injury. This in mind and that Rumors suggest Atlanta is considering at least giving Freeman less carries in favor of Coleman, is very concerning. This backfield could be very different, very quickly.
Because of this, I would pass up on Freeman in the top 10. His draft stock from my point of view is pick 12-20.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets
Brandon Marshall exceeded expectation last year with 1,502 yards, and 14 TDs. He is now 32 years old, and without a lot of support on the offensive end. There is little doubt in my mind that his numbers will be on the decline this year.
Don’t get me wrong, I do not think Marshall is a ‘do not draft at all’ player. He is however, a very concerning pick as a #1 WR. Most rankings that I have seen are putting him in the top 10 of all WRs. This is what scares me. I believe that makes him overrated. At 32, and with the inconsistent QB Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him, it wouldn’t be wise to draft Marshall over young guns like Evans, Jeffrey, or even Cooper and Watkins when drafting your #1.
Matt Forte, RB, Jets
The Jets can’t catch a break! Another one on the list. Forte was one of the biggest names in free agency, and he found a home in NY. But how much does this affect his fantasy value?
The answer? A lot. He is now 30 years old (near death in RB terms), and in a system that is all new to him. Not only that, but the system he is leaving, is the primary reason for him having ever been a fantasy super star. Let’s also note what happened to Chris Johnson In NY. He essentially went there and got his career killed, then out of nowhere the cardinals broke out the Defibrillators and revived him.
This is a tricky one, and I myself will be avoiding Forte in my draft. I feel like he will start off in a fairly large role and people will be excited, but as the season goes on, his touches, and production will have a sharp decline. Especially come playoff time.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars
You may have seen this warning elsewhere, but it’s that important. Bortles will NOT be what he was last year, in fact he will be worse.
Bottles finished 2nd in touchdown passes last year. Wow! Great, right? Wrong, he also finished 1st in INTs, while scoring most of his TDs when trailing. He also attempted the sixth most passes in the league. What does this tell you? It tells you that the jaguars were really bad. And they were forced to be extremely pass happy. Because of this, The Jaguars are spending their offseason beefing up their defense and committing to the run. Really bad news for those high on Bortles. If the Jags are getting better, Bortles value is going down. At least from what it was last year.