Welcome back everybody to Javimente’s DFS weekly picks! This is where I offer a list of players that according to their price and usage in their systems (targets and overall touches), are the best options to bring you high production at the lowest price, making them great value picks. A player hitting his value would mean that that player scored 3 times their price, for example, $4,000 x 3 =12pts. I will not be advising you to use the “Top Tier” players, as they are the players everybody knows about. If you haven’t played DFS before, you want to pair a couple of these great value players with the more expensive players that you know will come through with great numbers week in and week out, to give you the highest point total possible and ideally give you a chance to win some cash! Draft King prices are annotated by the DK next to the price. So with that being said, let’s get it started!
*I will be changing it up this year. I will put out my Thursday night game Value Picks Wednesday or Thursday afternoons. My Sunday and Monday nights game’s Value Picks will be released Saturday afternoon.
WEEK 1 SUNDAY-MONDAY GAMES
TOP TIER QB (8K-7K)
Kirk Cousins vs Pit ($7,400DK) – Kirk has a full arsenal of weapons this season and not much of a running game. This game should be high scoring, with Kirk putting up most of the points for Washington.
Derek Carr vs N.O ($7,300DK) – The Saints allowed ten 300 yard passers last season. Derek Carr will eat versus this horrible pass defense!
Matthew Stafford vs Ind ($7,200DK) – Stafford may have lost Megatron, but he has weapons to spread the wealth around now and the Colts secondary has been hampered by injuries this off-season.
MID TIER QB (6K)
Tyrod Taylor vs Bal ($6,900DK) – Though his passing numbers aint the greatest, he rushed for over 40 yards 8 out of the 14 games he played in last year. Those rushing yards will help him hit value at a lower price than most.
Jameis Winston vs Atl ($6,600DK) – Entering his second season, Winston should be a lot more comfortable out there with his weapons. This should be the last week where Jameis is priced this low.
Brock Osweiler vs Chi ($6,300DK) – Brock will have Hopkins and a couple of nice rookie WRs to throw to against a horrible Bears secondary.
BOTTOM TIER QB(5K-4K)
Robert Griffin III vs Phi ($5,600DK – $7,500FD) – Posssibly the most hit or miss player in this article. If the offensive line can keep RG3 upright, he has the weapons to put up some nice numbers.
Dak Prescott vs NYG ($5,000DK) – Will Dak keep up his momentum, maybe-maybe not. But, for this price and against the Giants, he could hit BIG TIME!
TOP TIER RB (7K)
Lamar Miller vs Chi ($7,000DK) – While everyone else is playing the Gurleys and APs and Elliotts, go ahead and play Lamar Miller against the 22nd ranked rushing D from last year.
MID TIER RB (6K-5K)
Eddy Lacy vs Jax ($6,700DK) – Looking lean, mean and also looking for a new contract. Lacy is going against a defense that allowed 3.7 yards per carry last year.
Mark Ingram vs Oak ($6,600DK) – Ingram is the main back, 3rd down back and the goalline back for one of the best offenses in the league. Take advantage of the price while you can.
Doug Martin vs Atl ($6,200DK) – Atlanta allowed the 7th most fantasy points and 2nd most TDs to RBs last season. With Martin expecting 15-20 touches, he should score enough points for you.
Ryan Mathews vs Cle ($5,700DK) – Mathews is now the main RB in Philly and should get 16-20 touches per game until he falls apart. Until then, he should hit value with this price tag.
Latavius Murray vs N.O ($5,600DK) – Oakland’s OLine was rated as the 2nd best in the league. If this holds true in week 1, Murray should see plenty of holes to run through against the Saints.
BOTTOM TIER RB (4K-3K)
Gio Bernard vs NYJ ($4,800DK) – The Jets may able to stop JHill this weekend and when they do, dump offs galore may be coming Gio’s way.
Spencer Ware vs S.D ($4,400DK) – Though he may be heavily used in DFS, he will be heavily used in real life as well. For this price, you can build a hell of a team around Ware!
Theo Riddick vs Ind ($4,000DK) – Theo led the league in catches by an RB last season. Draft Kings is PPR. The ball will be more spread around this year in Detroit then in the past. It all just makes too much sense at this price.
Christine Michael vs Mia ($3,700DK) – CMike will start for the Seahawks Sunday. Rawls may play as well but you have to believe CMike will get enough touches to get 9 fantasy points. By using him, you will save A LOT of money.
James White vs Ari ($3,600DK) – Pass catching back on a team that throws a lot. 5 Catches for 40 yards is all he needs to hit value, anything over that is icing on the cake!
TOP TIER WR (8K-7K)
Keenan Allen vs KC ($8,000DK) – The last WR priced at 8k. He may end up with more catches then all the guys above him.
Mike Evans vs Atl (7,400DK) – Mike Evans will want to show everybody that last year is behind him. He will continue to be heavily targeted and make the most of his opportunities.
MIDDLE TIER WR (6K-5K)
Eric Decker vs Cin ($6,600DK) – Decker was targeted within 3 yards from the goal line, 27 times last year. Red zone threat and playing on the other side of Brandon Marshall, should see single coverage all day.
Desean Jackson vs Pit ($6,100DK) – Always a threat to bust a long one, Jackson will be going against a pretty bad secondary in a game that should have a lot of scoring.
Donte Moncrief vs Det ($6,000DK) – Many believe this will be Moncrief’s breakout year. I believe it will start week one in a big way.
Michael Floyd vs N.E ($5,900DK) – Floyd started heating up late last year with three 100 yard games in his last 5 games. I feel like the Cards will be able to put up points against the Pats and Floyd could very well catch a TD.
Michael Crabtree vs N.O ($5,500DK) – Playing alongside Cooper allowed Crab to see a lot less coverages roll to him last year. That should continue this year and Crab should continue to hit value every week.
BOTTOM TIER WR (4K-3K)
Torrey Smith vs Rams ($4,900DK) – It seems like all Smith does is run Go Routes. It shouldn’t change under Chip Kelly and all he needs is one to hit!
Willie Snead vs Oak ($4,800DK) – Could see a decrease in targets this year, but he should get enough to hit value against Oakland week 1.
Marvin Jones Jr. vs Indi ($4,600DK) – Indi’s secondary is in shambles for week 1. Marvin Jones should take advantage of that and the fact that Megatron is no longer on the team.
Tajae Sharpe vs Min ($3,000DK) – Yes Tennessee wants to run a lot. Yes Minnesota’s defense is good. But at 3K, Sharpe doesn’t have to do a lot to make playing him worth it.
MIDDLE TIER TE (4k)
Coby Fleener vs Oak ($4,900DK) – Oakland allowed the 3rd most points to TEs last season, and Brees is forecasted to throw the ball a lot in this game.
Gary Barnidge vs Phi ($4,700DK) – The Barn Dawg could be a top 6 TE this year. So to get his potential output for his prize is great.
Delanie Walker vs Min ($4,500DK) – Walker had a career high 94 catches last year. Although Tennessee will focus more on running this year, Delanie will be a constant target of Mariotta’s.
Zack Ertz vs Cle ($4,300DK) – Wentz is gonna need a security blanket. Ertz, who in the last 2 games of last season went for 22 catches and 274 REY, will look to start the season strong.
BOTTOM TIER TE (3K)
Martellus Bennett vs Ari ($3,400DK) – Gronk will be out on Sunday. MartyB could have a top 5 TE day.
Kyle Rudolph vs Ten ($3,000DK) – The Titans allowed the 5th most points per game to TEs last season. Whether its Hill or Bradford, Rudolph will be a big target.
Clive Walford vs N.O ($3,000DK) – Clive has been pegged to have a breakout season this year. No better team to start that against than the Saints.
Philly vs Cle ($3,300DK) – RG3’s first game at the helm in Cleveland. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles have a defensive TD or two.
Hou vs Chi ($3,200DK) – JJ Watt is set to play Sunday and should help Houston have a nice defensive day versus Chicago.
Good luck with your picks this week. If I helped you win, you’re welcome! If I helped you lose, you just didn’t use the right combination of guys I gave you. HAHAHAHAHA #GetAtMe
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